Student Grade
Prediction

COMPANY OVERVIEW

In one of the Canadian provinces, there is a publically funded college that provides technical, academic, vocational or a mix of programs that are exclusive to the said province's education system.

The purpose of this separate collegiate education is to make post-secondary education more accessible to the residents of the province, and also to ensure that students have proper academic prepartion to succeed at university.

THE CHALLENGE

A wave of students in the province is failing in the subjects of Math and French. The province's success rate is 74% whiles other provinces' are closer to 90%.
The ministry of education is looking understand the problem, and design initiatives and strategies to decrease failure rates and improve student performance in the province. Their main goal to be able to predict the final score of a student, early on in the semester. This will enable them to identify students who need assistance and then provide the necessary supports to ensure the students excel.

TOOLS utilized

• SQL for Data Extraction

• Excel for Data Exploration

• Alteryx and Tableau for Data Analysis

tHE APPROACH

• Requested brief description of required data from information systems team

• Performed ETL - extracted, transformed and loaded the data

• Performed exploratory analysis of the data

• Utilized multiple regression analysis to identify the significant variables

• Identified how the attributes/features correlate with the student's final grade and with each other

• Split the data for training and testing

• Created a machine learning model that predicts the final grade of a student early in the semester

POSITIVE CORRELATION
The following attributes had a postive correlation with the final score, G3:

• Higher education ambition

• Time spent studying

• Student attends a paid class

• First & Second semester grade

NEGATIVE CORRELATION
The following attributes had a negative correlation with the final score, G3:

• Past failures

• Student receiving support from school

• Health

results

Exploratory analysis of the data showed the following:

NOTE:
- Since the goal is to be able to predict the final grade at the beginning of the semester, the first and second semesters' grades were excluded from the algorithm. However the features that affect these were included in the predictive model.
- Features that were positively correlated with the final grade were also removed from the grade prediction algorithm.

THE CONCLUSION
The following are suggested in the strategic planning for the Ministry of Education:

• Encourage students to take extra classes if they can afford to do so. Provide bursarys and grants to those in need

• Encourage and promote effective study time for students on and off campus

• Foster physical and mental wellness to help students
  

future work

It will be interesting to note what insights are drawn when:

• These categories of students are exclusively analyzed; those taking:
  - only Math
  - only French, and
  - both Math and French

• Studies are made on how student grades is affected by the location of the college attended

HOW DOES PREVIOUS FAILURE AFFECT FINAL GRADE?

HOW DOES HIGHER EDUCATION DESIRE AFFECT FINAL GRADE?

Total number of students is 1040

Minimun grade is 0, scored by 53 students

Maximum grade is 20, scored by 1 student

Most common grade is 10, scored by 153 students

Average grade is 14

About 72% of the students scored less than average

With respect to our target variable which is the final grade, the following were determined:

HOW DOES SCHOOL SUPPORT AFFECT FINAL GRADE?

Recommendations

The following are suggested in the strategic planning for the Ministry of Education:

• Identify students with no interest in higher education and create supports for them in either higher education, a trade they're interested in, or further skill development

• Increase the availability of access to tutelage for students in need

• Create a study plan for students who have had a past failure

• Encourage students to take extra classes if they can afford to do so. Provide bursarys and grants to those in need

• Encourage and promote effective study time for students on and off campus

• Foster physical and mental wellness to help students